Another Yalta or Another Regional War with Global Ramifications?

Posted on October 9, 2012


Coat of arms of Syria -- the "Hawk of Qur...

Coat of arms of Syria — the “Hawk of Qureish” with shield of vertical tricolor of the national flag, holding a scroll with the words الجمهورية العربية السورية (Al-Jumhuriyah al-`Arabiyah as-Suriyah “The Syrian Arab Republic”). (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

With the Syrian crisis heading towards political settlement, increase in violence is to be expected. Recently, Syria has become the target of many terrorist attacks reflecting a tendency of concerted efforts by the “enemies of Syria” to abort any peaceful political transition in Syria. Hence, the strategic interest of the anti-Syria group is to divert the Syrian crisis path from a peaceful political transition to a direct military confrontation   enhanced by this group’s solid conviction and fear that their failure in Syria would adversely impact their own domestic political situation.

Putting an end to the violence in Syria was the first step in the roadmap of the UN envoy for Syria Lakhdar Ebrahimi. UN envoy’s failure to end the violence will not only keep the Syrian crisis intact, but it will also eliminate the last hope to find an exit for the crisis.

The Turkish attack on Syria comes at a time when Turks feel to be abandoned by their allies in the Syrian Crisis. Neither the US nor NATO expressed any interest in military escalation of the Syrian crisis. Inside Turkey, many are aware of the harmful consequences of the crisis on both political and security levels. Erdogan’s government started to be seen as the one who is leading the future of Turkey toward the unknown.  Many statements by Turkey’s main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) highlighted these risks.

Since the downing of the Turkish jet by Syria last June, the ruling AK party became determined to instigate a “nationalistic” Turkish stance as the only exist from its internal crisis. Today, the Turkish military response to the errant mortar shelled from Syrian territories provided the much awaited excuse to transform Erdogan’s position into a Turkish semi-united political position resulting in Erdogan obtaining the approval of the Turkish Parliament for any future military intervention.
This green light to attack Syria is of two strategic benefits. First, it awards Erdogan’s party a national consensus reducing internal pressure. Secondly, it gives Turkey more liberty and space to realize new corridors inside Syria that can strengthen its position inside Syria, especially through supporting the insurgents in Aleppo. Turkey doesn’t want a war but desperately needs to improve its current situation.

After the clashes on the Syrian-Turkish borders, it is obvious the Syrian crisis has reached to a decisive crossroads with Ebrahimi’s mission seemingly at a risk. Therefore, many observers anticipate the “long-term” Syrian crisis to expand horizontally in the very near future without clear idea of the limits of this expansion.
This said, the whole world is to decide whether to embrace a new “Yalta summit” that includes a peaceful political transition under an international umbrella, or for all to witness very possible vicious regional war with global unforeseeable destructive ramifications.